Bolsonaro Upends Polls, Forces Lula Into Brazil Runoff
Bolsonaro, a federal senator, jumped into the lead as polls closed but could not clear the threshold of 50% plus one of valid votes. With 99.99% of ballots counted, he held 47.03% to Lula's 45.16%, a gap of roughly 2.2 million votes.
Addressing supporters in Brasilia, Bolsonaro said he was "very happy" with the first-round turnout. He cast the result as "the end of an era" for Lula's Workers' Party (PT) and pointed to “a real possibility that Brazil will elect a modern government.”
The outcome upended most pre-election polling, which had given Lula a narrow edge in first-round voting intentions.
Bolsonaro, 45, a lawyer and senator, was handpicked by his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, to carry the conservative banner for the Liberal Party. He began his career as a Rio de Janeiro state deputy and held a modest national profile until his father formally endorsed him. His platform combines tough-on-crime security policy, market-oriented economics and conservative social values. He also faces intense scrutiny over ongoing investigations into alleged corruption and money laundering linked to a biographical film about his father.
Lula, 80, is pursuing a fourth non-consecutive term. He governed from 2003 to 2010 and returned to office in 2023. Running with Vice President Geraldo Alckmin, he is campaigning on social welfare programs, environmental protection, industrial investment and multilateral trade, particularly within the BRICS bloc.
On election night, Lula acknowledged the result fell short of his hopes while signaling a combative three-week campaign ahead. “The result is often unexpected. One never gets everything one wanted,” Lula said in his speech, conceding that this was not the outcome he had anticipated. He vowed that “starting tomorrow, a new campaign begins.”
He then issued a warning to his rivals. “The Bolsonaros had better get ready,” he said, telling voters that “Flavio Bolsonaro represents uncertainty for the country.”
The fallout extends beyond the presidency. The Liberal Party's strong showing in both chambers of Congress means Lula, if he wins the runoff, would confront a more hostile and fragmented legislature, complicating his ability to govern a fourth term. The party's representation will grow from 15 to 28 seats starting in 2027, shifting the balance of power and placing the conservative bloc at the center of Brazil's political landscape.
Security dominated voters' concerns heading into the election. Bolsonaro courted them with a hard line on crime, including a call for US terrorism designations for Brazilian drug cartels.
Turnout reached just under 79% of the 158,745,502 registered voters as of Sunday evening, according to Brazil's Superior Electoral Court, a notable figure given that voting is mandatory under Brazilian law.
A win for the right would extend a regional trend. Over the past year alone, left-wing governments in Colombia, Chile, Honduras and Bolivia have all been replaced by right-wing presidential contenders.
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